Be prepared! Newsrooms can defend against risk with scenario planning.
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When the Trump administration claimed in April that many nonprofits “abused” their tax-exempt status, LaSharah S. Bunting at The 19th knew the 501(c)3 organization needed to quickly assess possible threats to their work.
Bunting, who is The 19th’s vice president, has experience with scenario planning as former director of journalism for the Knight Foundation. The process, also known as risk assessment, involves considering realistic threats based on impact, likelihood and organizational preparedness.
In a piece she wrote for Nieman Lab’s “Predictions for Journalism 2026” series about the importance of scenario planning, Bunting writes, “What began as a protection strategy became something deeper: a new way of operating that brings stability in a wildly unstable environment. Scenario planning forces a different, and far more useful, question. Not ‘What do we think will happen?’ but‘What will we do if it does?’”
Newsrooms often already do some scenario planning — for example, how to cover major breaking news or preparing obituaries of famous people. Having a plan in place means when the event happens, teams know what to do.
Bunting’s idea is to do the same to protect your organization and its audience from undue harm.
Three reasons to use scenario planning
- A systematic analysis of possible dangers to operations — and determining possible responses — allows for more nimble reaction.
- The exercise helps organizations identify cross departmental strengths and areas that need improvement.
- Planning internal and external communications helps refine organizational priorities and engages stakeholders.
Newsroom overview
The 19th is an independent, nonprofit news organization covering the intersection of gender, politics, policy and power. Fifty-five staffers across 17 states serve a national audience. Additionally, the 19th News Network offers content and editorial collaboration to more than 100 partner newsrooms in 46 states.
“When it comes to the ways gender and race impact politics, policy and power, our industry hasn’t always gotten it right,” says Emily Ramshaw, The 19th’s co-founder and CEO. “Six years ago, we launched The 19th to elevate the voices of women and LGBTQ+ people in political journalism, with stories that expose inequity, provide nuanced policy coverage and normalize their leadership.”
Ramshaw says one early goal was ensuring a sustainable workplace for women and LGBTQ+ people, so benefits packages — including parental leave and elder care — “minimize some of the many of the barriers to remaining in the industry.”
With employees in multiple locations, Ramshaw says, “nothing can compare to the magic of gathering in person” for an annual all-staff retreat.
“Transparency in our decision-making, processes and operations has also been critical to building trust between senior leaders and staff,” Ramshaw says. And that extends to The 19th’s scenario planning.
Problem: How to prioritize risks?
Bunting learned from the Knight Foundation the importance of preparing for different futures. She later researched assessment tools from various sources and created her own worksheet, which she continues to iterate.
She said The 19th’s first step was to articulate a North Star of guiding principles. That helps anchor decisions when uncertainty is high. It’s important to share that North Star throughout the organization.
Some examples Bunting mentions in her “Scenarios Planning for Newsrooms” template include:
- We remain deliberate and decisive.
- We choose clarity, transparency and boldness over fear-based decision making.
- We do not bend to pressure that compromises our mission or integrity.
After The 19th chose their guiding principles, they examined four areas that could immediately affect the journalism: engagement/audience, finances, succession planning and legal issues.
Bunting suggests considering trigger points. A news organization could lose funding, find its distribution model disrupted or be acquired by a new owner. Tumult might prompt journalists to form their own way forward, leading to new outlets like The 51st, launched in 2024 after DCist closed.
Organizations should also be honest in evaluating whether strengths could turn into liabilities. Evaluating where overreliance exists — and where redundancies are lacking — can be a first step.
Solution: Work through scenarios, then expand the circle
With senior leaders and then The 19th’s board, Bunting identified about 40 risks that they ranked on impact, likelihood and preparedness. Issues were ranked based on high impact, high likelihood and low-to-medium preparedness.
A summertime retreat gave all staffers the opportunity to work through a few scenario-based exercises. One table was motivated cross-sectionally to “get in where they fit in,” Bunting says. They discussed what kinds of communication would be needed, who would be in charge and different assignments for newsroom staff vs. the product/tech team.
The framework that The 19th uses has evolved with each assessment. But the core ideas are to anticipate disruption, protect the journalism and plan responses that don’t stem from panic. It’s also crucial to get input cross-functionally. Different teams will surface different risks and offer alternate solutions.
Impact: Address immediate weaknesses, plan for the future
The outcome for every organization will vary. However, working through scenarios illuminates what needs to happen quickly and what kind of response will happen when a risk becomes reality.
Proactive immediate actions include strengthening protocols, training staff, engaging legal counsel ahead of time and setting up backup systems.
As part of this inventory, draft communications should be prepared for internal use and potential external messaging. Everyone in the organization should be clear on who does what and when.
Looking ahead to possible outcomes, a critical question to answer is: What is the first thing to protect? When an organization knows this, it can work through additional questions such as timing of response: What happens in the first hour, the first day, the first week. Depending on the situation, what information might need to remain confidential?
Security and privacy
As with any internal documentation, be aware of the security features of your chosen platforms and who has access, Bunting says. (Assessing your organization’s security and privacy — especially sensitive information — might be a scenario to work through.)
Verdict: Scenario planning should be routine
Lots of organizations go through strategic planning on regular cycles, but those plans can sit idle until it’s time for the next cycle. With scenario planning, going through the exercise is just the beginning. If something has high likelihood and high impact, shoring up preparation is essential.
Then establish a cadence for reviews at least once a year to revisit documentation and make necessary updates.
“As an industry, we need to stop trying to predict the future,” Bunting says. “We need to do more to prepare for multiple futures at once.”
Alternatives for The 19th’s scenario planning template
Bunting created a comprehensive overview of how to fill out a three-page template, however other free resources are available.
- City University of New York shared a risk assessment toolkit.
- The Management Center has a quick overview of scenario planning.
- Nonprofits might find Bridgespan Group’s toolkit and webinar useful.
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