Getting started with scenario planning: A guide for newsrooms

Using industry trends, economic forecasts and developing technologies, news organizations can be smarter about how they prepare for the most probable futures.

One tool is scenario planning, which can highlight strengths and weaknesses as organizations think through how they can solve for the most imminent risks. LaSharah S. Bunting, vice president at The 19th, developed a tool to help her colleagues make informed assessments.

Step 1: What’s your crisis philosophy?

This will be your North Star when stress is high. It should consist of no more than six clear statements and be memorable enough that staff can use it in real time when making difficult decisions.

Some examples Bunting shares in her “Scenarios Planning for Newsrooms” template include:

• We remain deliberate and decisive.
• We choose clarity, transparency and boldness over fear-based decision making.
• We do not bend to pressure that compromises our mission or integrity.

Step 2: Identify risks

Assemble key stakeholders cross functionally to brainstorm broadly. What are the potential threats internally, externally, operationally, culturally and reputationally? Don’t discard any ideas or try to solve at this stage.

Step 3: Prioritize

Rank each scenario high, medium or low for the following areas:

• Impact: What will the consequences be?
• Likelihood: How probable is it? 
• Preparedness: How ready are we to handle it today?

If impact and likelihood are high and preparedness is low, that scenario needs immediate attention. Choose a handful of high-priority scenarios to develop detailed scenario plans.

Step 4: Build a matrix and form an action plan

For high-priority risks, map how disruption unfolds and what needs to happen at each stage.

Briefly describe the best-, moderate- and worst-case scenarios for each risk. It’s important to know the organization’s vulnerabilities and be aware of ways to monitor early signals (for instance an unexplained and prolonged drop in traffic from a particular referer).

Then discuss with stakeholders:

• What assumptions are we making that might fail?
• What information or research is missing?
• What unintended consequences might our response create?

Step 5: Create action plans

Plans should include immediate steps and an outline of what will happen when the threat emerges. Know what could trigger the action plan. Assign key roles (for example safety lead and implementation lead) so communications and decisions are clear, fast and consistent. 

Is scenario planning a good fit for your organization?

Preparation is key to calm and informed response amid crisis. Scenario planning is a way to solicit input from people throughout the organization about threats they perceive and to crowdsource possible solutions.

If you’ve done scenario planning before but haven’t revisited the plan, it might be time to surface the documentation and make necessary updates.

Pro tips: This isn’t one and done

Scenario planning shouldn’t end after answering the tough questions. 

Appoint a primary owner for the scenario library. That person (or the person who has that title) is responsible for scheduling regular reviews and making updates that are shared. Scenarios should be reviewed at least once a year.

Free resources to try:

• City University of New York shared a risk assessment toolkit. 
• The Management Center has a quick overview of scenario planning.
• Nonprofits might find Bridgespan Group’s toolkit and webinar useful.

• Category: Getting Started Guides
• Tag: Scenario planning